The Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: October 2024
October 24, 2024
To Summarize: Stock and bond markets have been mixed as stronger economic growth has slowed expectations for how quickly the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates. Q3 2024 earnings growth is expected to bottom out, but analysts project earnings accelerating to close out the year. Consumers continue to spend and shift to services over goods. Leading indicators in commercial real estate point to restricted future supply, which should benefit multifamily rent growth in the out years. We unpack this and more in the October edition of The Pulse.
In the Markets: While recent market performance has been positive for U.S. stocks, the bond market is telling a different story. It’s been a tough start to Q3 for bonds, which have declined due to anticipating slower rate reductions by the Federal Reserve. Even though the Q3 corporate earnings season is expected to be lowest year-over-year growth rate since mid-2023, the good news is that analysts expect a strong reacceleration in Q4.
Complex Consumers: Consumer activity remains healthy overall, yet spending on goods as opposed to services has grown weaker. While companies have noted that demand has weakened in recent months, unemployment is low and wage growth is steady, both positive indicators for consumer health. Spending across affluent U.S. consumers, specifically the Millennial and Gen Z demographics, is up 12%.
Restricted Supply in Real Estate: Multifamily real estate continues to face rent growth challenges as supply outstrips demand. Yet contracting supply in commercial real estate should benefit future multifamily rent growth. The Midwest and Northeast markets have seen the strongest jump in rent growth as limited new supply and GDP growth nationally has had positive impacts for apartment owners.
Top Headlines: We’re reading about GE HealthCare’s announcement of a time-saving AI tool for doctors who treat cancer, Microsoft rollout of new autonomous AI agents to fend off challenge from Salesforce, U.S. office availability rate declines for the first time in five years, and Adobe’s 2024 U.S. holiday shopping forecast.
Related resources:
- GE HealthCare announces time-saving AI tool for doctors who treat cancer
- Microsoft to roll out new autonomous AI agents next month, fending off challenge from Salesforce
- Tide beginning to shift for U.S. office as availability rate declines for first time in five years
- Adobe’s 2024 US Holiday Shopping Forecast – Digital Insights